The marketing services manager at Babcock and Wilcox had determined that: Despite being quite sophisticated within our analysis, we're less than obtaining the information we want for the shop-load planning and arranging. Our sales forecasts also drive our accounting and business predictions, so we have to improve the way you develop our fundamental predictions. Just how can Babcock and Wilcox improve its predicting? (A Microsoft Stand out computer file can be obtained to be used with this particular case, product 7A98E023.)
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1. How is B&W using probabilities in their forecasting?
2. How might they quantify the uncertainty in their forecasts?
3. How might they estimate their business risk?
4. What business can B&W expect to win in the first quarter of 1988?
5. In the same quarter, for what range of business activity should they plan?
6. What are the key assumptions in the P1 and P2 that might account for what you see?
7. What might you suggest would work better?